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Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions

Weapons investigators in Kyiv found that at least one Russian Kh-101 cruise missile used in widespread attacks there on Nov. 23 had been made no earlier than October.

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By John Ismay

Some of the cruise missiles that Russia launched at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in late November were manufactured months after the West imposed sanctions intended to deprive Moscow of the components needed to make those munitions, according to a weapons research group.

Experts examined remnants of Kh-101 cruise missiles found in Kyiv, the capital, after an attack on Nov. 23 that knocked out electricity and shut down water systems in large areas of the country. One of the missiles was made this summer, and another was completed after September, markings on the weapons show, according to a report released by the investigators on Monday .

That Russia has continued to make advanced guided missiles like the Kh-101 suggests that it has found ways to acquire semiconductors and other matériel despite the sanctions or that it had significant stockpiles of the components before the war began, one of the researchers said.

The findings are among the most recent by Conflict Armament Research , an independent group based in Britain that identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition used in wars. A small team of its researchers arrived in Kyiv just before the attack at the invitation of the Ukrainian security service.

In four previous research trips to Kyiv since the invasion, the investigators found that almost all of the advanced Russian military gear they examined — like encrypted radios and laser range finders — was built with Western semiconductors.

The investigators were unable to determine whether the Kh-101 remnants they studied were from missiles that reached their targets and exploded or were intercepted in flight and shot down.

The Kh-101 missiles were marked with a 13-digit numerical sequence. The investigators said they believe that the first three digits represent the factory where the missile was made, followed by another three-digit code indicating which of two known versions of the Kh-101 it is and two digits indicating when it was manufactured. A final string of five numbers is believed to denote the missile’s production batch and serial number.

Piotr Butowski, a Polish journalist who has written extensively about Russia’s warplanes and military munitions, said the group’s numerical analysis matched up with his research.

“The first three digits are always ‘315’ — this is the production facility code,” Mr. Butowski said in an email. “Kh-101 missiles are developed and manufactured by the Raduga company in Dubna near Moscow.”

In an interview before the report was released, a U.S. defense intelligence analyst said that Mr. Butowski’s analysis was consistent with the government’s understanding of how Russian missile producers — including those that make the Kh-101 — mark their weapons. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said Russia was generally believed to be experiencing ammunition stockpile problems and may be using newer munitions alongside those that are much older.

The analyst said that reports from Russia indicate that the government has ordered employees at munition plants to work additional hours in an effort to produce more ordnance, and that it is clear that Russia is now firing fewer long-range weapons like cruise missiles at a smaller number of targets in Ukraine.

Pentagon officials say Russia has fired thousands of long-range weapons like cruise missiles as well as short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at targets in Ukraine since the war began.

Whether Russia has depleted its inventory of older cruise missiles is unclear. But militaries often use older munitions first in combat because they typically make up a majority of a nation’s stockpile.

On Nov. 23, the same day as the cruise missile attack on Kyiv, Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of defense, told reporters that Russia’s supply of precision-guided weapons had been “significantly reduced” and that it would be more difficult for Russia to rapidly produce them “because of the trade restrictions they have on microchips and other types of things.”

But Damien Spleeters, who led Conflict Armament Research’s investigation, said it would be difficult to say that the Russians are running short on weapons.

“Those claims have been made since April,” he said, “so we’re just pointing to the fact that these cruise missiles being made so recently may be a symptom of that, but it’s not a certainty.”

John Ismay is a Pentagon correspondent in the Washington bureau and a former Navy explosive ordnance disposal officer. More about John Ismay

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The decision by the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia  with American-made weapons fulfills a long-held wish by officials in Kyiv  that they claimed was essential to level the playing field.

In recent days, Ukraine has conducted a series of drone attacks inside Russia  that target radar stations used as early nuclear warning systems by Moscow.

Top Ukrainian military officials have warned that Russia is building up troops near northeastern Ukraine , raising fears that a new offensive push could be imminent.

Zelensky Interview: In an interview with the New York Times, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine challenged the West  over its reluctance to take bolder action.

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What’s the state of Russia’s missile arsenal?

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As Russia bombards Ukraine , military observers are left wondering how many and what types of missiles Russia still has in its arsenal. In other words, how long can the Kremlin keep up the barrage?

Some analysts believe Russia could be running down its stockpiles of long-range precision weapons as the nearly 8-month-old war drags on and sanctions hit its economy, forcing it to resort to less-accurate missiles.

It remains unclear whether Russia has enough weapons to continue the strikes against Ukraine with the same intensity that began after the Oct. 8 attack on the Kerch Bridge in Crimea.

A look at what is known — and not known — about Russia’s arsenal:

What does Russia say?

Russian officials say the military has sufficient stockpiles of long-range missiles and that factories are churning out more, rejecting Western claims its supplies are shrinking.

The Russian military hasn’t said how many missiles it has fired and how many are left, and there is no information available to independently assess the state of Moscow’s arsenal.

President Vladimir Putin recently chaired a meeting to discuss plans for boosting weapons production, but he steered clear of specifics in the introductory remarks that were televised.

What has Russia relied on recently?

When the Russian military unleashed missile attacks across Ukraine starting Monday, it used the entire range of its long-range precision weapons: the Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles fired by strategic bombers, the sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles and the ground-launched Iskander missiles.

Russian forces have also repeatedly used S-300 surface-to-air defense missile systems for striking ground targets, a move seen by some observers as a sign of Russian weapons shortages.

Russia’s repurposing of air defense systems and anti-ship missiles suggests it is running low on more advanced missiles that are intended to hit ground targets, said Ian Williams, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Strikes from a Russian S-300 air defense system “don’t have the ‘oomph’ to really hit hardened military targets, and they don’t have the accuracy in a land attack role to even strike the building you want to hit,” Williams said. “This really is just firing them into the ether and seeing where they land.”

Their use, however, could be explained by an abundant stock of older subtypes of such missiles, which were superseded by more advanced air defense weapons, as well as the military’s desire to keep more expensive, advanced long-range missiles for priority targets.

Though numbers are hard to obtain, how Russia is using its weapons is telling. In a recent strike in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, a surface-to-air missile was used to hit a target on the ground.

Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, called that “a sure sign that missile stocks are running low.”

What is Washington saying?

While the Biden administration believes there is evidence that Russia has depleted stocks of its most efficient weapons, U.S. officials say there is no sign Moscow is ready or willing to relent in its barrages against civilian areas in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

It was not immediately clear what the U.S. thinks Russia might have left. But two officials said U.S. government analysts had noted with interest that Russia had used cruise missiles, and not less-expensive, shorter-range artillery or rockets, in the aftermath of the Kerch Bridge blast.

That choice, the officials said, could indicate that Russia is running low on cheaper, reliable midrange weapons and is having trouble replenishing its stockpiles due to sanctions and supply chain disruptions.

The relative calm that Ukraine enjoyed before the Kerch Bridge explosion may have been a sign that Russia was trying to conserve its limited resources, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal assessments of Russia’s military strength.

What’s behind the choice of targets?

Firing large numbers of inaccurate missiles could be intended to clutter air defenses while Russia uses its best missiles for high-value targets and key infrastructure.

But Williams suggested that Moscow could also be acting strategically, knowing its barrage will hit civilian targets in hopes of driving up panic in Ukraine and pushing Kyiv to accept a cease-fire favorable to Russia.

“It’s becoming more and more clear that, as they say, the cruelty is the point,” he said.

Tara Copp in Washington contributed to this report.

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What to know about the long-range cruise missile Russia says it fired

Russian naval forces launched long-range cruise missiles on Tuesday evening from the waters off Sevastopol, a port city in Russia-held Crimea, according to expert analysis of video verified by The Washington Post.

Russia said the 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missile attack destroyed a major Ukrainian arsenal.

Understanding the weapons that have drawn the world’s attention since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

A v ideo filmed by a witness from the Sevastopol waterfront on Tuesday shows at least four projectiles being fired from the water. Geolocation of the video by The Post shows the missiles appear to be traveling northwest, away from the city. As the narrator recites the date and location, the camera pans to show his surroundings.

“We thought it was a plane flying,” the narrator says. “It’s normal that planes fly here. But shooting is something serious.”

Additional video filmed around the same time shows eight flares with long tails that appear to be airborne missiles flying over the Black Sea. Both videos were verified by The Post.

Footage shared by the Russian defense ministry on social media shows large fireballs emanating from a warship where the ministry said Russian forces had fired Kalibr cruise missiles toward military assets in Orzhev, a village outside of the city of Rivne. Rivne is located more than 200 miles west of Kyiv and would be within the range a 3M-14 Kalibr missile could travel if it was fired from Sevastopol.

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The tightly cropped video first shows multiple large explosions in succession above a ship, while someone off camera counts, “First, second, third, fourth.” The video then cuts to a wider view of a sunset where the long tails of the eight missiles are visible. The Post was not able to verify the location of this launch.

What you need to know about hypersonic missiles, which Biden says Russia used against Ukraine

Video reportedly of a Russian Project 21631 Buyan-M small missile ship launching 8 Kalibr-NK cruise missiles from near Sevastopol. https://t.co/GcWqUpoXLh pic.twitter.com/VvU3l5yYCK — Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 22, 2022

“As a result of the strike, a large depot of weapons and military equipment of the Ukrainian troops, including those received from Western countries, was destroyed,” a statement on the ministry’s Telegram channel said.

U.S. officials said they could not confirm that the weapons had been used. Ukrainian authorities have not confirmed the deployment of the missiles or the destruction of an arsenal near Rivne.

The Post could not independently verify Russia’s claim that a weapons depot had been destroyed.

Ian Williams, deputy director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he was nearly positive the videos showed the launch of 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missiles.

“These are Russia’s long-range naval sea-based cruise missiles, similar to the U.S. Tomahawk,” he told The Post in an email. “They use satellite navigation along with some onboard inertial guidance.”

“This was almost certainly launched by the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” Mark Cancian, senior adviser for the international security program at CSIS, said in an email. Kalibr missiles are “at the high end of Russian capabilities,” he added. “Russia uses them to attack the highest priority targets. They seem to be doing more of that in western Ukraine. It may be part of an effort to attack strategic targets, that is, targets that matter in the long war.”

The 3M-14 or SS-N-30A cruise missile , commonly referred to as the Kalibr missile, can be fired from ships or submarines toward land targets. It can travel a maximum range of about 1,550 miles, according to the CSIS Missile Defense Project.

3M14 Kalibr

Stabilizers

20 feet, 4 inches

6 foot person for scale

Pop-out wings

Control fins

The missiles, designed to penetrate the air defenses of stationary ground targets, fly autonomously and largely horizontally at low altitude, along preprogrammed waypoints. Their route can be updated midcourse via satellite communication. Cruise missiles can be highly accurate compared to ballistic missiles.

Low altitude

flight path,

by satellite

Approximate 1,550 mile range

Not to scale

3M14T Kalibr

flight path, parallel to

Low altitude flight path, parallel to ground

Tracks terrain

during flight

Route can be updated through satellites

The standard 3M14T land-attack missile reportedly contains a nearly 1,000-pound high explosive warhead. It is often used to attack storage facilities, command posts, seaports and airports.

Russia stuck barracks in the southern port city of Mykolaiv with a Kalibr missile earlier this month, the New York Times reported , killing at least eight Ukrainian soldiers who had been sleeping there. The region’s governor said at least 19 others were wounded.

A Pentagon official said at a background briefing Wednesday that the United States still assessed that Russia has “the vast majority” of its inventory of surface-to-air missiles and cruise missiles.

Russia first used the SS-N-30A Kalibr missile in Syria in October 2015, when it launched 26 missiles from Russian naval vessels in the Caspian Sea, at forces fighting the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Dan Lamothe contributed to this report.

Country: Russia

25 items, page 1 of 0, kh-55 (as-15).

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Russia's massive missile and drone attack: How Ukraine's air defense responded

O n the night of June 1, Russia launched another massive strike on Ukraine. The occupiers used 100 missiles and drones, more than 80 of which were successfully shot down by air defense, according to the Telegram channel of Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk.

According to him, fighter aviation, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force, mobile fire groups, and electronic warfare means of Ukraine's Defense Forces were involved in repelling the enemy's air attack.

As a result of the anti-air battle, 81 aerial targets were shot down. Specifically:

・30 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles;

・4 Kalibr cruise missiles;

・1 Iskander-K cruise missile;

・46 Shahed-131/136 strike UAVs.

Russia launched 100 missiles and drones

On the night of June 1, 2024, Russian occupiers carried out a powerful missile and aviation strike on critical infrastructure targets in various regions of Ukraine, using air, sea, and land-based missiles, as well as Shahed-type strike UAVs.

In total, the enemy launched 53 missiles of various types and 47 strike UAVs:

・35 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 MS strategic aviation aircraft (launch area - Saratov region, airspace over the Caspian Sea of the Russian Federation);

・4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Crimea);

・1 Iskander-K cruise missile (from Crimea);

・10 Kalibr cruise missiles (from the northeastern part of the Black Sea);

・3 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided aviation missiles (from the airspace of the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia region);

・47 Shahed-131/136 strike UAVs (launch area - Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Russia).