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Former president Barack Obama is coming to Wisconsin

MILWAUKEE — Former president Barack Obama is coming to Wisconsin for an early voting rally this weekend.

Obama will be in Milwaukee on Oct. 29. The Democratic Party of Wisconsin said the exact location and time of the event is yet to be determined. His visit comes just days before the Nov. 8 election. 

The former president will be campaigning in support of Wisconsin Democrats, including U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and the incumbent governor, Tony Evers.

Obama will be joined by Evers, Barnes, Attorney General Josh Kaul, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Congresswoman Gwen Moore, Lt. Gov. candidate Sara Rodriguez and other local Democrats.

Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points and by 7 points in 2012. 

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Former president barack obama to join wisconsin democrats for early vote event.

President Obama will travel to Milwaukee on Saturday, Oct. 29.

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Former President Barack Obama will travel to Milwaukee on Saturday, Oct. 29, for an early vote event with Gov. Tony Evers, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Attorney General Josh Kaul and other Wisconsin Democrats.

Other Democrats including Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Congresswoman Gwen Moore will also be in attendance.

"From restoring access to reproductive health care to defending democracy and Wisconsinites’ right to vote, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Voters are excited to cast their ballot for Democrats across the state," The Democratic Party of Wisconsin said in a news release.

WISN 12 News will share more details about the event when they become available.

Watch CBS News

Obama coming to Wisconsin to stump for Barnes, Evers

October 14, 2022 / 7:14 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota

MADISON, Wis. — Former President Barack Obama, who twice won Wisconsin by large margins, is coming to the battleground state in the final days of the campaign to give a boost to the Democratic governor and challenger to Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.

Obama plans to hold an early vote event on Oct. 29 in Milwaukee, the state's largest city and home to the largest group of African American voters. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is taking on Johnson and would be the first Black senator from Wisconsin should he win.

Barnes, who is from Milwaukee, has been trying to energize Black voters in a race that a Marquette University Law School poll this week showed Johnson with an apparent lead.

Gov. Tony Evers is challenged by Tim Michels, a construction company co-owner who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Marquette polls for months have shown that race to be about even.

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore, who represents Milwaukee, are also slated to appear along with other Democratic candidates for office, including Attorney General Josh Kaul.

Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points and by 7 points in 2012. Those wide margins in presidential races are unusual in the state that Trump won by less than a point in 2016 but lost to President Joe Biden by less than a point in 2020.

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Former President Barack Obama coming to Milwaukee on Saturday

WAUSAU, Wis. (WSAW) - Former President Barack Obama will be in Milwaukee on Saturday.

He’s appearance is for an early vote event with Gov. Tony Evers, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Attorney General Josh Kaul, and other democratic candidates. President Obama will also be joined by Senator Tammy Baldwin, Congresswoman Gwen Moore, and other Democrats from across the state.

Click here to RSVP.

Doors open 1 p.m. The program begins at 3:30 p.m.

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‘We can make things better’: Barack Obama energizes Democrats during Milwaukee visit

The former president appeared alongside gov. tony evers, lt. gov mandela barnes and other high-profile democrats in a last-minute bid to energize milwaukee voters..

MILWAUKEE — Former President Barack Obama visited Milwaukee on Saturday to rally for Democratic candidates ahead of Wisconsin’s Nov. 8 midterm elections.

Obama emphasized the importance of voting in Wisconsin’s notoriously close elections during his nearly hour-long speech to an energetic crowd of thousands packed into the North Division High School gymnasium.

“You get to make a difference. Your vote will make a difference,” Obama said. “That's why Republicans are working so hard to stop you.”

The former president’s visit came just 10 days before the midterm elections, where Gov. Tony Evers is seeking re-election against Republican challenger Tim Michels and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes hopes to upset incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.

Obama campaigned at North Division High School twice before in 2014 and 2018 to support Democratic candidates, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel .

His appearance Saturday alongside Evers, Barnes, Attorney General Josh Kaul and other party leaders is part of Democrats’ last-minute effort to reclaim ground lost to Republicans nationwide in the past few weeks.

In Wisconsin’s Senate race, Johnson has led Barnes by three or four percentage points since mid-October and even notched a six-point lead against Barnes in the latest Marquette Law School poll from mid-October.

Meanwhile, Evers and Michels are locked in a dead heat for the governor’s office, according to polling averages . 

Obama called Evers “tough” and praised the Democratic governor for vetoing Republican bills on guns, education and abortion.

“He’s single-handedly keeping Republicans from driving the car off the road. He might be democracy's best hope in Wisconsin,” Obama said.

The former president warned the crowd that a Republican victory in November could jeopardize election security in Wisconsin.

“Democrats still abide by the basic norms and rules of how the democracy is supposed to work,” Obama told the Milwaukee crowd. “The vast majority of Republicans… they’re not even pretending that the rules apply anymore.”

He also called the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June a “wake-up call” and said both Republicans and the Supreme Court could strip same-sex marriage and contraceptive access rights if left unchecked.

“If Republicans take back the House and the Senate, we could be one presidential election away from a nationwide ban on access to abortion,” Obama said. 

Roe’s overturn reinstated an 1849 abortion ban in Wisconsin that makes exceptions for the life of the mother but not in cases of rape and incest — an issue Democratic candidates have hammered this election cycle.

“[Tim Michels] said the 1849 ban was an exact mirror of his position,” Evers told the crowd, referencing a Michels interview with WISN from June. “We cannot afford a governor who believes in a no-exception abortion ban.”

Michels changed his position to support rape and incest exceptions to Wisconsin’s abortion ban during a September radio interview. He most recently told University of Wisconsin-Madison students Tuesday that he “just disagrees with the system of abortion.”

A Marquette Law School poll from earlier this month found 60% of registered Wisconsin voters oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The poll also found 83% of voters believe abortion should be allowed in cases of rape or incest. 

However, inflation remains the most important issue among Wisconsinites, with 68% of voters saying they were “very concerned” about the issue in the same poll. 

Obama and other speakers reminded the crowd of Democratic accomplishments on student loan debt forgiveness and COVID stimulus checks.

He compared Democrats’ proposals to Republican inaction on a federal bill to limit gas price gouging.

“They’re not interested in solving problems”, Obama said. “They’re interested in making you angry and then finding someone to blame.”

Though the former president spoke on a number of what he called “dark” topics, he ended his speech with optimism.

“I believe we have more in common than our politics and our politicians suggest. Even when times are tough, I believe what unites us can be stronger than what divides us,” Obama told the crowd. 

“There have always been certain values that bind us together as citizens no matter who we are or where we come from or what we look like or who we love.”

Tyler Katzenberger is the managing editor at The Daily Cardinal. As a former state news editor, he covered numerous protests and wrote state politics, healthcare, business and in-depth stories. Follow him on Twitter at @TylerKatzen .

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America Votes 2024: Latest election news and information from TMJ4

Former president barack obama visiting milwaukee today.

MILWAUKEE — Former President Barack Obama is visiting Milwaukee on Saturday to help boost the campaigns of fellow Democrats in Wisconsin.

Obama is scheduled to attend an election event at North Division High School at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday.

According to organizers, the former president will be joined by:

• Gov. Tony Evers
• Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes
• Sen. Tammy Baldwin
• Lieutenant Governor Nominee Sara Rodriguez
• Attorney General Josh Kaul
• Congresswoman Gwen Moore

The "Wisconsin Early Vote" event comes just weeks before the midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 8.

Gov. Evers is facing off against Republican Tim Michels. Lt. Gov. Barnes will be on the ballot for Wisconsin U.S. Senator against Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. Kaul is running against Republican challenger Eric Toney.

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Former Pres. Barack Obama to visit Milwaukee on Friday, Oct. 26

MILWAUKEE — Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign in Wisconsin next week on behalf of the state's Democratic candidates. The state Democratic Party announced in a news release Friday afternoon that Obama will visit Milwaukee for an event on Oct. 26. He'll campaign with U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Evers, U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore and Randy Bryce, a Democrat running to fill outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan's seat. Other local elected officials are scheduled to join him as well. Party spokeswoman Courtney Beyer said she expects the event will be a rally but had no other details.

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• Barack Obama

Gov. Scott Walker greeted President Barack Obama when Obama arrived at an airport in La Crosse, Wis., on July 2, 2015. (AP photo)

In Wisconsin visit, Barack Obama brags that he reduced federal deficit by two-thirds

Making an economic speech at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse on July 2, 2015, Barack Obama ticked off a list of his accomplishments as president -- and made a bolder version of a claim we have heard before about slashing the federal budget deficit.

"So, we’ve got a record streak of private-sector job growth," Obama said in his remarks, which included veiled criticisms of Gov. Scott Walker on the day Walker filed federal papers as a precursor to announcing his run for president.

"We’ve cut the deficit by two-thirds. Our stock market has more than doubled, restoring 401(k)s for millions of families. This is progress. Step by step, America is moving forward. Middle-class economics works. It works. Yes!" Here's why the deficit claim caught our attention:

In September 2014 in Milwaukee, Obama said he had cut the deficit in half. We rated that statement True , and it has become one of our most-clicked fact checks.

Could it be that, less than a year later, the deficit is down by two-thirds?

Deficit vs debt

Let’s be clear at the top that Obama is talking about the deficit, which has been getting smaller -- not the debt, which is getting bigger.

The deficit is an annual number. It’s the difference between what the government collects in revenues and spends in one year. The United States hasn’t seen budget surpluses since the days of President Bill Clinton.

The debt, meanwhile, is a running tally -- it’s the total of annual deficits minus any annual surpluses. The nation's debt currently exceeds $18 trillion , and it has risen by more than $7 trillion under Obama.

(Here’s a good primer from PolitiFact National on the difference between the two.)

Tracking the deficit numbers

In reviewing the cut-the-deficit-in-half claim, our baseline was fiscal 2009. That period started on Oct. 1, 2008, when George W. Bush was still president, and ended on Sept. 30, 2009, eight months after Obama took office.

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We found the deficit was $1.41 trillion in 2009 and $679.5 billion in 2013 -- a drop of more than half.

Measured another way, the deficit made up 9.8 percent of the economy (gross domestic product) in 2009 and dropped to less than half of that -- 4.1 percent -- by the end of fiscal 2013.

But now we have figures for fiscal 2014.

PolitiFact National examined those figures in January 2015, after Obama said in his State of the Union speech that we've seen "our deficits cut by two-thirds." Our colleagues rated his statement Mostly True .

The 2014 deficit was $486 billion -- a drop of two-thirds from the $1.41 trillion in 2009. And it was 2.8 percent of GDP, a reduction of more than two-thirds from the 9.8 percent in 2009.

(In June 2015, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected that 2015 will end with a deficit that, as a percentage of GDP, will be the lowest since 2007.)

So, math wise, Obama’s two-thirds claim is solid. But there are a few caveats.

"Yes, we reduced the deficit two-thirds from its peak in 2009, but that was after deficits had just increased by nearly 800 percent to their highest level outside of World War II," Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget told us.

Indeed, Obama helped grow the 2009 deficit with his stimulus spending, although he can take some credit for the economy, which has improved since the Great Recession ended in June 2009 and helped bring down the deficits.

And although the Congressional Budget Office projects that deficits relative to GDP will decline slightly over the next few years, they will then rise and add more to the debt. Largely as a result of the aging population and rising health care costs, CBO projects the deficit to grow from less than 3 percent of GDP in 2015 to more than 6 percent in 2040.

Obama said: "We've cut the deficit by two-thirds."

In raw dollars and as a percentage of the overall economy, the annual federal deficit in 2014 was two-thirds smaller than in 2009, the year Obama took office. But there are several caveats, including the fact that his stimulus spending helped raise the 2009 deficit and the economy, for which he can take some credit, has improved since the end of the Great Recession the same year.

For a statement that is accurate but needs additional information, our rating is Mostly True.

Read About Our Process

The Principles of the Truth-O-Meter

Our Sources

C-SPAN, video of President Barack Obama remarks (quote at 14:45) July 2, 2015

PolitiFact National, "Barack Obama claims deficit has decreased by two-thirds since taking office," (Mostly True) Jan. 20, 2015

PolitiFact Wisconsin, "Obama says he has cut national deficit in half," (True) Sept. 5, 2014

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, "Historical Tables -- Table 1.1"

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, "Historical Tables -- Table 1.2"

Congressional Budget Office, "The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook," June 16, 2015

Email interview, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget senior vice president and senior policy director Marc Goldwein , July 6, 2015

Email interview, White House spokesperson Jesse Lee, July 6, 2015

Email interview, Taxpayers for Common Sense vice president Steve Ellis , July 7, 2015

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Former President Obama Campaigns for Wisconsin Democrats

Former President Barack Obama campaigned in Milwaukee for Democratic candidates running in the state’s 2022 midterm elections, including inc… read more

Former President Barack Obama campaigned in Milwaukee for Democratic candidates running in the state’s 2022 midterm elections, including incumbent Governor Tony Evers and U.S. Senate candidate Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes . The former president championed Democratic causes and noted the “breakdown of basic civility” in contemporary politics, citing the recent attack on Speaker Nancy Pelosi ’s (D-CA) husband, Paul, as an example. Moreover, he said that “democracy is also on the ballot,” and that Republicans were “not even pretending that the rules apply anymore. They are literally just making stuff up.” close

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Obama’s University Visit Was Not Simple

By Dan Barry

• Sept. 28, 2010

MADISON, Wis.

Would it be all right if the Leader of the Free World stopped by your campus for a little while?

He wants to surround himself with hordes of enthusiastic young people, toss out a few oratorical gems — as you know, he’s got the gift — and reinvigorate his anxious political party. The Secret Service has the usual security concerns, of course, but we’ll pay for any inconvenience. Interested?

The offer by the Democratic National Committee to the University of Wisconsin-Madison would seem like a no-brainer, conjuring images of university officials ostentatiously checking their calendars before saying: It just so happens that the Badgers of Wisconsin are free that day.

The offer, though, forced the university’s chancellor, Biddy Martin, to weigh the many benefits of a visit by a sitting president against the naked political purpose of that visit. After all, the event would be a kickoff rally for Democrats as they approach the midterm elections, and Barack Obama would be appearing as a party leader more than as a president.

In the end, the university said: Yes!

Tuesday afternoon, thousands of students crammed cheek-by-jowl into the university’s Library Mall, both to see a world leader up close and to provide that same world leader with a photo-op backdrop exuberant enough to offset reports of his flagging popularity.

But his visit wasn’t an easy call. Before the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System and the Democratic National Committee signed a contract last week, in which the committee agreed to pay $10,500 to cover expenses, Ms. Martin had to satisfy herself that it was the right thing to do.

“There was never a question whether we wanted President Obama to come to our campus,” Ms. Martin said. “That was clear. But the question was how to do this in a way that was fair to everyone in the community.”

Over the decades, two other sitting presidents have visited the campus of this famously liberal, progressive university in this famously liberal, progressive city. They, too, had their reasons.

In the fall of 1932, President Herbert Hoover, a Republican, spoke at an event that a university fact sheet says was “somewhat marred by the president’s tired voice and a faulty amplifier.” The Depression would tire any president, especially one who probably sensed that in days he would be soundly voted out of office.

And in May 1950, President Harry S. Truman delivered a “peace” address in which he said that only together can nations build a strong defense against aggression. A few weeks later, the Korean War broke out.

Now, 60 years later, a third president was offering to visit, not to deliver a policy speech on the weak economy or the quicksand war, but to begin a four-city effort to rally Democrats in key states. Why Madison?

Derrick Plummer, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee, provided this answer by e-mail: “President Obama has always had a special place in his heart for the city of Madison. And, as you know, President Obama visited the city in 2008 and is glad to be a part of the enthusiasm and activism that has been a strong tradition of the University of Wisconsin.”

True, President Obama may well remember that night in February 2008, when a series of wins in state primaries all but ensured that he would be the Democratic candidate for president, and thousands wildly cheered during his victory speech in Madison.

He may also have heard how, on election night, throngs of University of Wisconsin students spontaneously gathered in the streets to celebrate. Ariel Shapiro, a junior who works for one of the student newspapers, The Daily Cardinal, remembers how hundreds of students climbed Bascom Hill to serenade the statue of Abraham Lincoln with “God Bless America.”

“It was ridiculous,” she says, still smiling at the sweet memory.

Finally, the president may also have taken note of the relatively low unemployment rate in Madison, which stands at 5.5 percent. In Racine, a little more than 100 miles to the east, unemployment is at 14.1 percent, while in Beloit, 55 miles to the south, it’s at 15.3 percent.

So, Badgers, how about it?

Ms. Martin, who has been chancellor since September 2008, was thrilled by the chance. You couldn’t buy this kind of educational experience, or, quite frankly, this kind of publicity; it’s an honor. But she worried about the fairness of having campus life disrupted by a political event. A day or so of fretting followed.

Then, amid the many documents and manuals that provide guidance in the administration of a campus of 42,000 students and 21,000 faculty and staff members, someone uncovered a written policy called “The Use of University Facilities for Political Purposes.” Among other things, it said that each major political party can hold one event on campus during an election period.

And don’t forget: Library Mall, where the Democrats wanted to hold their rally, is a vibrant nerve center for the university and the city, with a rich tradition of political events and free speech.

Ms. Martin and the Board of Regents signed on, then received validation of that decision in the plans of students and faculty members to gather after the political rally to debate everything from the economy and the wars to the political process itself. The only dissent has come by e-mail from a couple of alumni, objecting to the use of the campus for the rally.

“This is a campus that values political speech,” Ms. Martin said.

But political speech comes at a cost. It meant the complete or partial closing of several buildings, from the University Bookstore to the spectacular State Historical Society building. It meant a day off for all the food vendors in Library Mall. It meant the cancellation of the 5 p.m. Mass at the St. Paul’s University Catholic Center.

It also meant enough logistical challenges to spawn a doctoral dissertation on time management, or homeland security, or Kafka. Setting up magnetometers. Removing all bikes. Establishing a plan for protesters. Banning laptop computers, drink bottles, sharp objects, and bags or purses larger than a sheet of paper.

Oh, and portable lavatories. “Specifically, about the number of porta-potties,” Ms. Martin said. “There’s a potential difference of opinion of how many will be needed.”

This and other matters were ultimately resolved. By 3 p.m., a line a mile long and three and four people deep was disappearing into the distant horizon of University Avenue, an assertion that at least here in Madison, the president still rocks. Campus police estimated an overflowing crowd of 26,500.

As the crowd waited, political ideas and conspiracy theories bounced among them like so many beach balls.

Suddenly, the signal was given and the crowd rushed, thwarting many who had waited patiently in line. They passed through the banks of magnetometers and poured onto the Library Mall, where the leaves on the trees were turning and the sharpshooters on the roofs were watching.

They played music. They recited the Pledge of Allegiance. They cheered earnest student speakers. Then, shortly after 6, President Obama appeared in shirtsleeves and no tie, taking his place in front of a collection of students adorned in Badger red. A sustained roar, or release, followed.

“Hello, Wisconsin!” the Leader of the Free World said.

What we know about Biden and Trump's fundraising hauls so far in 2024

W ASHINGTON – National polls show President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck in the 2024 presidential race. But, with seven months to go until voters cast their ballots, Biden is dominating his Republican opponent on another major benchmark – fundraising.

In March, Biden and Democrats reported having more than twice as much cash on hand than Trump and Republicans.

Money isn’t everything – and doesn’t necessarily determine the success of a campaign. However, Biden’s cash advantage could allow the Democrat to run a more aggressive campaign, especially in the handful of sunbelt and midwestern swing states where small margins of voters could determine the fate of the race.

Start the day smarter. Get all the news you need in your inbox each morning.

For more insight on the contest, here’s a deeper look at what we know about Biden and Trump’s fundraising hauls so far.

Biden’s fundraising haul

The Biden campaign raised an astounding $90 million in March , bolstered by a major donation drive following the president’s State of the Union address and a celebrity-packed fundraiser in New York City headlined by former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.

The monthly fundraising total includes contributions to the Democratic National Committee, as well as joint fundraising committees.

March was also the campaign’s best grassroots fundraising month since launching, it said. So far, 1.6 million people have donated to the Democratic incumbent's re-election bid.

In total, Democrats reported having $192 million on hand, more than double the $93.1 million Republicans reported.

Biden’s campaign has used the money to hire staff, open offices, fund a multi-day swing across major battleground states and launch a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign .

Trump’s war chest

Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee said they raised $65.6 million in March. Since Trump clinched the delegates needed for the GOP nomination last month, the RNC and his campaign have begun sharing resources.  

The former president is expected to draw in another $43 million during a Palm Beach fundraiser on Saturday hosted by billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson. A portion of the money raised at the event will go to a group that has spent tens of millions of dollars on Trump’s mounting legal fees.

In addition to the four criminal cases against him, Trump has also been found liable in two civil cases related to fraud and sexual abuse. Judgments in the latter two require the former real estate mogul to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties.

The former president got a bond in his New York civil fraud case to shield his assets as he appeals a $454 million judgment for fraudulently over-valuing his real estate empire.

And Trump posted a $92 million bond to block columnist E. Jean Carroll from collecting on her $83.3 million judgment as Trump appeals her defamation victory. 

The super PAC Save America is helping pay these legal bills. It is classified as a “leadership PAC” and can only accept $5,000 per election cycle from each donor, but has few restrictions on how it spends money.

Trump’s campaign has said that it will not reach Biden’s fundraising totals this election and blamed the discrepancy on Biden’s “billionaire” supporters.

Who are Biden and Trump’s top donors?

Although both Biden and Trump tout their small-dollar donations, large contributions make up a majority of the money they’ve both raised, according to Open Secrets Data. Here’s a look at some of their top donors , based on data from early March,

Biden’s top donors

• $8.4 million from Future Forward USA Action, a hybrid super PAC advocating for the repeal of tax cuts for the rich, among other issues.
• $3 million from Greylock Partners, a venture capital firm that supports tech startups
• $2.5 million from Sequoia Capital, a venture capital firm that supports tech companies
• $2.5 million from Euclidean Capital, a hedge fund founded by billionaire James Simons
• $2.24 from Democracy PAC II, a super PAC targeting Texas voters, backed by Democratic megadonor George Soros

Trump’s top donors

• $16.5 million from Timothy Mellon, heir to the Mellon Bank fortune
• $5.25 million from McMahon Ventures, an LLC owned by Linda McMahon, the co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) alongside her husband Vince McMahon
• $5 million from Hendricks Holding Co., founded by conservative multibillionaire Diane Hendricks
• $5 million from Crownquest Operating, a Texas-based drilling company founded by GOP megadonor Tim Dunn
• $5 million from Robert Bigelow, a real estate investor who contributed heavily to Ron DeSantis bid for the Republican presidential nomination

Contributing: Reuters; Francesca Chambers, Joey Garrison, Suhail Bhat USA TODAY

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What we know about Biden and Trump's fundraising hauls so far in 2024

These presidents made stops in Wisconsin while holding office

The Electoral College question looming over 2024

There are two scenarios that could explain where the 2024 election stands right now. In one, President Joe Biden is locked in something close to a 50-50 contest with former President Donald Trump.

In the other, Biden is trailing by more — maybe much more — than the national polls suggest. 

The answer depends largely on whether Trump and Republicans have maintained the advantage in the Electoral College that they held in the last two presidential elections.

In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2 percentage points — but Trump’s performance among certain demographics and in certain states meant he defeated her in the Electoral College, 306 to 232. (Because of “faithless” electors, the final history-book margin later changed to 304 to 227.)

In 2020, Biden bested Trump in the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points, getting him the same number of Electoral College votes Trump won four years earlier — 306.

And if that trend carries over to 2024, Biden might have to win the popular vote by 5 points or more to get the 270-plus Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.

But a two-election trend is no guarantee of future results. And there’s another school of thought about 2024 that the GOP’s Electoral College edge may not be as pronounced, as Trump has made gains with Black and Latino voters, including in states like California and New York that won’t come close to deciding the presidential election. Even slightly better margins for Trump in those big, blue states could bring the national vote and the tipping-point state vote into closer alignment.

The question, however, is how sizable that decrease might be — if there is any. It’s an important piece of information to help gauge what the national polls really mean right now, but it’s also shrouded in mystery. 

“With Trump’s improvements among Hispanic and Black voters, the pro-GOP bias may decline by 1 to 2 points — but it won’t be erased,” said David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

“In other words, I think Trump could lose the popular vote by 2 points in November and still have an excellent chance of carrying Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada — which is why I view Trump as a pretty obvious favorite at the moment,” Wasserman added.

The case for the GOP maintaining its Electoral College edge

When political analysts discuss Electoral College bias, they’re referring to the difference between the margins in the popular vote and in the “tipping point” state — that is, the decisive state that carried the victorious candidate across the 270-electoral vote threshold needed to win the presidency.

Over much of the last 70 years, the tipping point states have closely tracked to the popular vote.

In 2012, for example, Barack Obama won the popular vote by almost 4 percentage points, and he carried his tipping point state, Colorado, by more than 5 points.

But that changed in the Trump era, when the Electoral College bias grew to the highest level since 1948 — in the Republican Party’s direction.

Part of the explanation was Trump’s particularly strong performance among white working-class voters in the Midwest and Rust Belt battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Another explanation was Democrats’ overperformance in states like California and New York, which aren’t key to deciding presidential contests in our current political landscape.

“Biden won by roughly 7 million votes [in 2020],” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the GOP half of the bipartisan team that conducts the NBC News poll. “He won California by 5 million votes; he won New York by 2 million votes.”

“This means in 48 other states and D.C., the vote was essentially tied,” McInturff added.

Also, Democratic improvement in Texas — going from 41% of the vote in 2012 to 46% in 2020 — further underscores how, in the Trump era, three of the most populous states have swung in the Democrats’ direction relative to the nation.

And with Biden and Trump set to be on the presidential ballot again in 2024, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see both overperformances — Trump’s with white working-class voters, Biden’s with voters in places like California and New York — repeat themselves.

The case for the GOP losing its Electoral College edge

A year ago, however, political number crunchers Nate Cohn of The New York Times  and J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the  University of Virginia’s Center for Politics  surmised that 2024 could be different from 2016 and 2020.

With national polls showing Trump faring better with Black and Latino voters, and with Democrats performing better in the 2022 midterms in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania than in California and New York (relative to past results), they argued that the pro-GOP Electoral College bias could be shrinking.

“If in fact Trump is improving with young and diverse voters — a debatable proposition, I think, but this is what the polls show now — it may simply give him better margins in states he’s already likely to win or lose, like California, Florida and New York,” Kondik told NBC News.

“So I do think it’s possible that the pro-GOP bias in the Electoral College could be smaller in 2024 than 2020,” he added.

Indeed, recent high-quality California polls  show  Biden ahead of Trump in the state by about 20 points in a head-to-head matchup, down from Biden’s nearly 30-point winning margin in California in 2020.

As Cohn put it in his New York Times article last year: “At the very least, tied national polls today don’t mean Mr. Trump leads in the states likeliest to decide the presidency.”

Where the battleground polling stands right now

Currently, Biden and Trump are locked in a competitive contest nationally, according to head-to-head polls, but Trump has held a small, yet consistent, advantage in several of the top battleground states, although those results are usually within the margin of error.

And polling averages do hint at a pro-Trump Electoral College   bias in some battlegrounds, but not others. Now, a big caveat: Using polling averages to measure exactly   where a presidential contest currently stands can be problematic, because of the polls’ different methodologies, their different margins of error and their different reputations. But they can be useful to take a broad view at how the national polls might be different from battleground surveys.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, Biden and Trump are essentially tied in the national polls.

They’re also essentially tied in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, suggesting little to no pro-GOP bias in those states — a shift from the final results in the last few elections, when those states tilted several points to the right of the national vote.

But Trump is ahead in other battleground states, including in Michigan, which some analysts believe could be the tipping point state in 2024.

Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC News.

This Pennsylvania county picks presidents. Here’s what it can tell us about 2024

ERIE, Pa. – On a recent weeknight in Erie, Pa., the local minor league hockey team hosted a playoff game for the first time in years. The home team Erie Otters faced off against the Kitchener Rangers from Ontario, Canada.

But even as fans watched the action on the ice, another kind of face-off isn’t far from the minds of Erie County residents.

“You go down different blocks or different streets and you see something, you know, Trump or Biden,” said 34-year-old Bekah Mook, who was at the game. “You can’t even have a glass of beer unless something is mentioned Democrat or Republican.”

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“It’s everywhere you turn,” she said.

While most counties across the country predictably lean Democrat or Republican, Erie County, in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania, is what election watchers call a “boomerang county.” It boomeranged from Democrats to Republicans and back in recent presidential election cycles.

The county went for former President Barack Obama twice, then former President Donald Trump in 2016, and narrowly for President Biden in 2020 .

Now everyone is trying to predict what will happen this year.

‘How Erie goes, Pennsylvania goes’

Biden won Erie County in 2020 by less than 1,500 votes, or 1.03 percentage points. In 2016, the margin was less than 2,000 votes for Trump.

Mook, who works in a mental health practice, is one of those voters who flipped. She comes from a family of Christian Republicans, and once considered herself solidly in that camp. She supported Trump in 2016, largely due to her opposition to abortion.

But her feelings changed as she watched Trump in office.

“Now I’m looking at everything else. And there are so many more issues than just abortion,” she said.

One thing that particularly bothered her was Trump’s policy of separating migrant families at the U.S.-Mexico border, and the images of children being kept in detention at border facilities.

“I have 19 nieces and nephews, no kids right now, and I’m just a kid person,” Mook said. “So when I see kids like that I’m just like, ‘Oh, that’s disgusting.’”

As for this year, Mook says she’s still going back and forth with her presidential vote. She’s currently leaning “60% Democratic.” Another Erie County voter at the arena that night, 22-year-old Ethan Haynes, says he’s an independent, but this year he’s all in for Biden. For him, democracy is on the ballot.

“I think that with Trump and his messaging has very much shown that he is unwilling to give up power if he gets it again,” Haynes said.

Head out to the more rural parts of the county, outside the city of Erie, and you find a much more conservative type of voter. After finishing his breakfast at a classic old diner in Girard, Pa., 66-year-old Tim Stevenson said he’ll be backing Trump.

“We can’t go through another four years of Joe Biden,” said Stevenson, a retired township police officer who now runs an auto repair shop. “I don’t think he has the capability to run an ice cream stand.”

It’s all about turnout

The local political party chairmen in Erie have long histories in the county, and both know that this place could be pivotal in November.

“Erie County actually mimics the state very closely demographically,” explained Sam Talarico, the Erie County Democratic Party chair.

“We have an urban core, we have suburban areas. And if you go south of Interstate 90, it’s rural,” he said. “So that’s why we’re kind of a bellwether county. We see how Erie goes, Pennsylvania goes. And that’s that’s been true in the last few elections.”

Talarico says his job this year is to drive turnout. That means the grunt work of campaigning: door knocking, phone banking and voter registration drives.

“I think most people have already made up their minds because both of these candidates have been in the White House and they know who they are,” he explained.

“So our real challenge is to find new voters and, you know, hopefully get them on our side,” Talarico said.

Mail-in voting might make the difference

Across town at the local Republican Party headquarters, county Chair Tom Eddy has a different goal: getting more Republicans to vote by mail.

Democrats currently have a massive advantage when it comes to mail-in ballots. While Biden won Erie by just over a single percentage point in 2020, he won 75% of the county’s mail-in ballots. The same dynamic played out for Democrats in the 2022 midterms and 2023 state judicial elections.

That’s a big problem for the GOP. Eddy puts it in very blunt terms, saying Republicans have been losing elections they could have won because voters in his party don’t believe in mail-in balloting.

That rejection of a type of voting that is legal and in wide use in the state comes in large part because the practice has been loudly vilified by Trump, who has repeatedly lied and called it a major source of voter fraud, falsely citing mail-in voting as a cause of his 2020 defeat. There is no evidence of any such problems with mail-in ballots.

Eddy, without himself completely dismissing or dispelling the incorrect claims of mail-in ballot fraud, does insist it’s time for Republicans to move on. He says it’s time to play to win, and that needs to include embracing mail-in voting.

“I still have people that are adamant against them (mail in ballots), they say, ‘Well, it’s it’s it’s an avenue for fraud.’ And I said, ‘Yeah, it could be,’” Eddy said. “But we’ve got to play that game. Otherwise we lose. We can’t win an election without them.”

Eddy and Talarico both see advantages when it comes to mail-in voting: It allows voters more flexibility and makes it easier to vote, thus boosting turnout.

It also allows party officials to focus their “get out the vote” efforts. Applications for a mail-in ballot are public information, and so is whether or not those ballots have been submitted. That means campaigns can reach out to voters directly and remind them to turn in their votes.

Voters can also check a box and have a mail-in ballot automatically sent to them for all future elections, making it even more likely they’ll vote in the future. That’s a huge help to political parties, and right now an area where Democrats enjoy a huge edge. As a Republican, Eddy describes that option this way: “If you can get people to check that [box], that’s the best thing in the world.”

Lies about voter fraud stoke Republican skepticism

But as Eddy tries to spread the gospel of mail-in voting to Republicans, he knows he’s facing an uphill battle. He tells the story of what he encountered when he tried to hand out mail-in ballot applications at a Trump rally in Erie last summer.

“I started at 6:30 in the morning, and I went to everybody that was lined up, all 10,000 people, and I asked them, ‘Here’s a mail in ballot,’ and I gave them my reasons why. And the majority of those people said, ‘No,’ because, one, Donald doesn’t endorse it and two, it’s fraud,” Eddy remembered.

He says that he only managed to get about 300 people in that crowd of thousands to sign up. Trump’s lies about widespread fraud in the 2020 election that he lost have been convincing.

That why it’s easy to find that distrust in mail-in voting when you talk to Republican voters.

“I think you should go to the polls with your license and prove who you are and vote. That’s it,” Tim Stevenson, the auto repair shop owner, said.

Stevenson plans to vote in person.

State Sen. Dan Laughlin of Erie thinks that mindset leaves a lot to chance — bad weather or a flat tire on Election Day could keep you at home.

Laughlin was a rare Republican supporter of mail-in voting back in 2020, and he says former President Trump does Republicans a disservice by continuing to bad-mouth mail-in ballots.

“If by chance, you use this clip in your interview and it gets back to him and he hears it, I hope he’s listening,” Laughlin said. “Because he’s the only one that can fix it. Because the rest of us are trying, right?”

If Republicans don’t get competitive on mail-in ballots, Laughlin said, “We’re going to get our clock cleaned.”

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